The 2035 Fleet of the Netherlands
In this report Blue River provides a comprehensive analysis of the trends and forecasts for passenger and commercial vehicles up to 2035. This report offers a projection of the fleet composition in 2035.
ANALYSIS & FUTURE VISION
In this report Blue River provides a comprehensive analysis of the trends and forecasts for passenger and commercial vehicles up to 2035. This report sheds light on the growth in the number of vehicles, the rise of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and offers a projection of the fleet composition in 2035.
The analysis focuses on both passenger and commercial vehicles and what this could mean for the future of mobility in the Netherlands.
In summary
While the data indicates a significant shift towards the electrification of the fleet, it is expected that in 2035, 73% of passenger cars will have a combustion engine. In the commercial vehicle segment, this will be more than 80%.
The fleet will continue to grow but will still largely consist of vehicles with combustion engines: The absolute number will be only 14% less than in 2024.
Widespread car ownership in the Netherlands
People outside the major cities are increasingly reliant on cars, as distances to work, social networks, and amenities increase, and public transportation offers less and less of a viable alternative.
People outside the major cities are increasingly reliant on cars, as distances to work, social networks, and amenities increase, and public transportation offers less and less of a viable alternative.
In the major cities, the appeal of cars is diminishing due to numerous alternatives to private vehicles, parking regulations, and reduced time savings when traveling by car. While private car ownership per capita in urban-center areas has decreased in the past decade, car ownership in more rural areas has clearly risen. A similar trend is evident regarding car usage. These are the conclusions drawn by researchers from the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy (KiM) in the publication ‘Widespread Car Ownership in the Netherlands’.
The vicious circle
The vicious circle of car dependence describes the process by which increased car mobility leads to even more car mobility, as we have seen primarily in Anglo-Saxon countries in the past. We introduce the principle and then demonstrate that this circle applies to a limited extent in the Netherlands.
Where car ownership was once a choice, it has now become increasingly a necessity. The car becomes the key to social participation, leading more and more people to acquire one. Thus, the circle is complete.
Exploring consumer sentiment on electric-vehicle charging
A McKinsey survey reveals how consumer attitudes about charging could influence the electric-vehicle market—and open new opportunities.
The transition to electric mobility is accelerating across the world. McKinsey analysis shows that annual sales of electrified passenger vehicles exceeded ten million units in 2022, marking an increase of more than 50 percent over sales in 2021. And McKinsey projects that they will reach roughly 40 million in 2030.
An increase of this scale has repercussions that go far beyond electric-vehicle (EV) sales. First and foremost, it will require an equally impressive rise in the availability of public and private chargers. In the United States, for instance, about 2.6 million ports were available in 2022; but with the number of EVs increasing every year, the country will need approximately 9.5 million ports by 2025 and 28.0 million by 2030. If the growth in EV-charging infrastructure fails to keep pace with demand, consumers may hesitate to make the shift from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Other charging issues, including consumers’ lingering concerns about being able to charge as conveniently as they can fuel up today, could also slow the widespread adoption of EVs.
