Articles

At Blue River, we aim not only to provide excellent investment opportunities in real estate but also to equip our investors and stakeholders with all the information they need to make informed decisions. On this page, we present a collection of articles and reports that shed light on the opportunities and challenges in the industry.

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The 2035 Fleet of the Netherlands

In this report Blue River provides a comprehensive analysis of the trends and forecasts for passenger and commercial vehicles up to 2035. This report offers a projection of the fleet composition in 2035.

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ANALYSIS & FUTURE VISION

In this report Blue River provides a comprehensive analysis of the trends and forecasts for passenger and commercial vehicles up to 2035. This report sheds light on the growth in the number of vehicles, the rise of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and offers a projection of the fleet composition in 2035.

The analysis focuses on both passenger and commercial vehicles and what this could mean for the future of mobility in the Netherlands.

In summary

While the data indicates a significant shift towards the electrification of the fleet, it is expected that in 2035, 73% of passenger cars will have a combustion engine. In the commercial vehicle segment, this will be more than 80%.

The fleet will continue to grow but will still largely consist of vehicles with combustion engines: The absolute number will be only 14% less than in 2024.

Fueling the Future: Petrolhead Roel Maas on the future Energy Mix

Joanknecht

“The need for mobility, the vehicle fleet, and the number of kilometers driven; it’s all increasing. Energy is needed in one form or another for this. Hence, the energy transition is not a threat, but rather an opportunity. Those who can adapt flexibly will own the future.”

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Roel Maas, through the Blue River Stations Fund, does what he has been doing in his industry for over 25 years: embracing change, pursuing innovation, and shaping the market. In recent years, sustainability has also caught his attention. “The need for mobility, the vehicle fleet, and the number of kilometers driven; it’s all increasing. Energy is needed in one form or another for this. Hence, the energy transition is not a threat, but rather an opportunity. Those who can adapt flexibly will own the future.”


Roel has built a unique career in the service station world. It started shortly after his business economics studies. His father owned two service stations with a shop, where Roel worked with great pleasure during his student years. When he saw an opportunity to add a third, he invited Roel to join him in business. They made a five-year plan to build an exploitation company that operated independently of oil companies. It was a stroke of genius. “After those five years, I was able to buy out my father. I was 27, had several branches, about 30 employees, and the drive to continue building. A few years later, I had a nice national network of 24 service stations.”

At that point, a new player entered the Dutch fuel market: Lukoil. Internationally one of the biggest, but until then unknown in the Netherlands. “I wanted to talk to them about fuel supply; perhaps I could add a brand to my chain. It turned out differently. They showed great interest in my exploitation company and made an acquisition proposal. This also affected my position as a founding board member in the retail cooperative for the 260 shops I had built alongside colleagues in the industry. It was not an easy decision, as I was certainly not done with entrepreneurship, but I went for it.”

A fascinating Energy Landscape

What has also changed over his more than 25 years in this industry, a clear constant is there for sure. “Energy is delivered. Whether it’s gasoline, diesel, LPG, CNG, LNG, hydrogen, or electricity. For the latter, infrastructure is now being laid out at a rapid pace. The investments involved are enormous. The existing pit stop locations are ideally suited for placing fast chargers. That’s a growth market, an opportunity, and – due to fluctuating electricity prices – an interesting new dynamic.”

“The electricity we all consume is becoming greener, including that for mobility. At the same time, we in the Netherlands have never consumed so much lignite and natural gas to generate electricity,” says Roel. So there are plenty of challenges left. “For the climate, we still need to take big sustainability steps. A significant challenge that I fully embrace from my expertise. This is just a fascinating sector, and I find it all incredibly interesting.”


This article appeared in the magazine ‘creating the future together,’ winter 2023/2024 edition, printed in November 2023. To receive the magazine, let us know: Tel. +31 40 844 70 00 or via info@joanknecht.nl.

Widespread car ownership in the Netherlands

Het KiM

People outside the major cities are increasingly reliant on cars, as distances to work, social networks, and amenities increase, and public transportation offers less and less of a viable alternative.

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People outside the major cities are increasingly reliant on cars, as distances to work, social networks, and amenities increase, and public transportation offers less and less of a viable alternative.

In the major cities, the appeal of cars is diminishing due to numerous alternatives to private vehicles, parking regulations, and reduced time savings when traveling by car. While private car ownership per capita in urban-center areas has decreased in the past decade, car ownership in more rural areas has clearly risen. A similar trend is evident regarding car usage. These are the conclusions drawn by researchers from the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy (KiM) in the publication ‘Widespread Car Ownership in the Netherlands’.

The vicious circle

The vicious circle of car dependence describes the process by which increased car mobility leads to even more car mobility, as we have seen primarily in Anglo-Saxon countries in the past. We introduce the principle and then demonstrate that this circle applies to a limited extent in the Netherlands.


Where car ownership was once a choice, it has now become increasingly a necessity. The car becomes the key to social participation, leading more and more people to acquire one. Thus, the circle is complete.

Exploring consumer sentiment on electric-vehicle charging

McKinsey & Company

A McKinsey survey reveals how consumer attitudes about charging could influence the electric-vehicle market—and open new opportunities.

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The transition to electric mobility is accelerating across the world. McKinsey analysis shows that annual sales of electrified passenger vehicles exceeded ten million units in 2022, marking an increase of more than 50 percent over sales in 2021. And McKinsey projects that they will reach roughly 40 million in 2030.

An increase of this scale has repercussions that go far beyond electric-vehicle (EV) sales. First and foremost, it will require an equally impressive rise in the availability of public and private chargers. In the United States, for instance, about 2.6 million ports were available in 2022; but with the number of EVs increasing every year, the country will need approximately 9.5 million ports by 2025 and 28.0 million by 2030. If the growth in EV-charging infrastructure fails to keep pace with demand, consumers may hesitate to make the shift from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Other charging issues, including consumers’ lingering concerns about being able to charge as conveniently as they can fuel up today, could also slow the widespread adoption of EVs.